Trevor Chow

I work on the compute desk at Meta.

I listen to a lot of Taylor Swift and (re-)watch Grey’s Anatomy; I enjoy skiing and skydiving; I also cook.

Occasionally, I write about AI and angel invest.

In past lives, I ran a GPU infrastructure startup and researched test-time scaling.

If you’re reading this, I’d love to meet: DM me!

(Scrollable) Bookshelf

How the World Became Rich
On What Matters
Financial Hacking
The Company: A Novel of the CIA
Salt Fat Acid Heat
Unreasonable Hospitality
The Accidental Theorist
Option Market Making
The Mom Test
Stubborn Attachments
High Growth Handbook
40 Classic Crude Oil Trades
Evolution of the Social Contract

Feeling the AGI

RL Turns Smart Models Into Useful Products

Diffusing the AGI across the economy requires the co-design of product deployment with model research.

Pre-Training Isn't Dead, It's Just Resting

Pre-training scaling laws haven’t bent, but the marginal dollar has moved to RL. It’ll come back and the OOMs will grow.

VC Investments in AI Labs are Betting Against AGI

Scaling laws reward the consolidation of AI labs, but investors are diversifying anyways. This indefinite optimism is a mistake.

Reasoning Will Speed Up AI Research

o1 is a bigger deal than ChatGPT: it marks the start of the reasoning paradigm. Decades of progress will occur in months.

Pre-Training is About Data Above All Else

The three key insights from pre-training LLMs in the last 4 years all point to the importance of data.

Bond Markets Aren't Predicting AGI

The arrival of AGI means an increase in real interest rates. Rates are still low: markets are not expecting AGI in the next 30 years! Accepted to Oxford GPR ‘23. Seen in The Economist (x2), FT (x2), BBG, Vox, AEI (x2) etc.

RL Turns Smart Models Into Useful Products

Diffusing the AGI across the economy requires the co-design of product deployment with model research.

Pre-Training Isn't Dead, It's Just Resting

Pre-training scaling laws haven’t bent, but the marginal dollar has moved to RL. It’ll come back and the OOMs will grow.

VC Investments in AI Labs are Betting Against AGI

Scaling laws reward the consolidation of AI labs, but investors are diversifying anyways. This indefinite optimism is a mistake.

Reasoning Will Speed Up AI Research

o1 is a bigger deal than ChatGPT: it marks the start of the reasoning paradigm. Decades of progress will occur in months.

Pre-Training is About Data Above All Else

The three key insights from pre-training LLMs in the last 4 years all point to the importance of data.

Bond Markets Aren't Predicting AGI

The arrival of AGI means an increase in real interest rates. Rates are still low: markets are not expecting AGI in the next 30 years! Accepted to Oxford GPR ‘23. Seen in The Economist (x2), FT (x2), BBG, Vox, AEI (x2) etc.