This is just a list of relevant posts about bioanchors and scaling that I want to read later.
- Bioanchors
- Chinchilla’s wild implications
- Two-year update on my personal AI timelines
- Fun with +12 OOMs of Compute
- Training Compute-Optimal Large Language Models
- AI timelines by bio anchors: the debate in one place
- The scaling “inconsistency”: OpenAI’s new insight
- Birds, Brains, Planes, and AI
- External Reviews
- Grokking Bioanchors
- Sleepwalking into Survival
- How Much Computational Power Does It Take to Match the Human Brain?
- COS 597Q
- Brain-inspired AGI and the “lifetime anchor
- Against evolution as an analogy for how humans will create AGI
- A comment on Ajeya Cotra’s draft report on AI timelines
- How does bee learning compare with machine learning?
- Scaling Laws for Neural Language Models
- Scaling Laws for Autoregressive Generative Modeling
- The Bio Anchors Forecast
- Scaling laws for single-agent reinforcement learning
- A proposed method for forecasting transformative AI
- Biology-Inspired AGI Timelines
- A concern about the “evolutionary anchor” of Ajeya Cotra’s report on AI timelines
- Disagreement with bio anchors that lead to shorter timelines
- Reply to Eliezer on Biological Anchors
- XPT forecasts on (some) biological anchors inputs
- Who’s right about inputs to the biological anchors model?
- What role should evolutionary analogies play in understanding AI takeoff speeds?
- Biological Anchors: The Trick that Might or Might Not Work
- AN 121